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Trump Leads In

At Least 8 Super Tuesday States

Super Tuesday voteSuper Tuesday is almost upon us and the indications are that Donald Trump will do well.

According to opinion polls, which have been very accurate so far, Trump leads in at least eight of the Super Tuesday states. Cruz leads in two and Rubio leads in none – who’s the con man now Marco?

Here are some numbers:

With approximately 600 delegates to be allocated according to the vote on Super Tuesday there is a lot at stake for all the candidates.

The vote threshold for delegates is 20 percent in AL, GA, TN, TX, VT;  15 percent in AR, and OK; and 13 percent in AK.

  • Alabama: Alabama has 50 total delegates, of which 29 are at large, meaning they are divided among the candidates, but only if they cross the 20% threshold.
    In the previous polling there, it was Trump 36, Rubio 19 and Cruz 12. Rubio is close to the edge and if he can bump it up a little he’ll get a share of those 29, but if not Trump takes them all.
    The other 21 go to the winner in each of seven congressional districts. With that sort of a spread it’s not all that unlikely that Trump could sweep them, especially now he has received a very influential endorsement from Sen Jeff Sessions.
  • Alaska: Alaska has 28 delegates, but because of its remoteness and relatively low population few candidates are willing to devote much time there.
    However one factor that will definitely help Donald Trump in the state is the endorsement by Sarah Palin, formerly governor of Alaska before her vice presidential run in 2008.
  • Arkansas: Arkansas has 40 delegates on offer. This state is perhaps the best opportunity for some of Trump’s rivals to pick up some delegates. The only recent poll shows Cruz with a narrow lead and a second-place tie between Trump and Rubio.
    Rubio is the beneficiary of a recent endorsement by Gov. Asa Hutchinson, part of a wave of establishment support he received after Jeb Bush dropped out of the race.
    Trump has spent time in Arkansas holding well attended rallies. He also recently hired Sarah Huckabee, daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, as a senior communications adviser.
  • Georgia: Georgia has the second largest of Super Tuesday delegates with 76 up for grabs.
    Polls show Trump with 30 to 45 percent support and Cruz and Rubio in the low 20’s. This state also has a 20 percent threshold so it’s 34 at large delegates may be proportionally split between between the top three if the vote goes according to the poll numbers.
    But Georgia also has a 50% winner take all rule so any CD where Trump breaks 50% would negate the runner-up’s delegate for that district.
  • Mass: Massachusetts with 42 delegates is one state where Donald
    Trump is perfectly placed to score a big win, the only question is how big. The poll numbers show him with a massive 50 percent support.
    On the positive side for the other candidates, Massachusetts distributes delegates to any candidate who receives more than 5 percent of the vote.
  • Minnesota: Minnesota is the only Midwestern state to vote on Super Tuesday. It has 38 delegates.
    It is the hardest state result to call because the most recent poll there puts Rubio and Cruz in a statistical tie with Trump.
    Trump has not spent time in Minnesota recently, whereas Rubio, who received endorsements last week from two prominent Minnesota Republicans, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Norm Coleman, is pinning his hopes on a good result here.
  • Oklahoma: Oklahoma with 43 delegates on offer and is the first totally “closed” primary state – meaning only voters who registered as Republicans by Feb. 5 can cast ballots.
    Polls have shown Trump holding a solid lead with 29 percent support to Rubio’s 21 percent, but it is still close enough for every vote to count.
  • Tennessee: Tennessee has 58 delegates. State polls show that Trump is leading Cruz by more the two-to-one with 40 percent to Cruz’s 22. Rubio is currently polling 19 percent.
    So if Trump can hold or increase his share there is a chance that one or both his nearest rivals could fail to make the threshold number and he could get the vast majority of the delegates.
  • Texas: Texas has the most Super Tuesday delegates at 155, 108 of whom are district delegates.
    Being a Texas Senator, it is not surprising that Cruz leads in the polls in Texas so it should be a win there for him. If it isn’t then his campaign is in big trouble.
    However, Trump also has more than the 20 percent threshold so should pick up a good portion of the Texas delegates too.
  • Vermont: Vermont is the smallest state in terms of the number of delegates at just 16.
    Consequently it has not received much attention although Donald Trump has held a rally here in January.
    The state’s only recent poll shows Trump dominating, with Rubio in a distant second-place. Vermont awards delegates only to candidates who earn 20 percent support or more – meaning Trump could shut out his rivals if he holds his large lead.
  • Virginia: Virginia is another state Trump should win. He has double digit leads in recent polls over both Cruz an Rubio.
    The state has a total of 49 delegates, however, the impact of a win here will be diluted because it doesn’t have a delegate threshold, which means that even lower-performing candidates will come away with a share of delegates.

Super Tuesday March 1st, 2016 will be the heaviest single voting day on the nomination calendar.

It could well prove definitive for Donald Trump.

Although it is a very tall order, a total sweep of all the states could effectively win him the nomination.

The key states are the five with a 20 percent vote threshold, and to a lesser degree Arkansas and Oklahoma with 15 percent.  The closer either Rubio or Cruz run to Trump in these states will result in the front-runner failing to get the size of majority support required.

This would extend the campaign and keep the two major challengers alive for a bit longer.

If, as seems likely at the moment, the Rubio-Cruz aggregate exceeds Trump’s total at the end of this voting period, we may be heading for a brokered convention, with all the opportunities that provides the establishment to rig the vote against Donald Trump.

That would be a travesty for the democratic process and would split the Republican Party asunder. But some of the establishment are dumb enough to try it in spite of the dire consequences.

So it is more important than ever for everyone who supports Donald Trump and who wants to see America made great again, to make that very special effort and get out to vote on Super Tuesday.

The polls are good, the results so far have been great, but this is the time for action and not complacency. Keep this movement going right to the White House.

Vote for Donald Trump!

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