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Election Defections

Rick Perry’s campaign seems to be in financial trouble. The Chairman of his Iowa campaign, Sam Clovis, is the latest to quit – and join Donald Trump.


Trump                    Perry

Unless his situation improves – and fast – Perry could be the first mid-major candidate out of the presidential race.

Strangely enough Perry’s problems have less to do with Donald Trump than with Perry’s main opponent in the fund raising game, namely fellow Texan, Ted Cruz. Perry’s campaign only raised $1 million in June whilst Ted Cruz raised $1 million on his first day in the race.

Making An Impact

Many people are trying to pass off the loss of Perry’s Iowa Chairman as simply a money thing. But it goes a lot deeper than that. It has much more to do with the fact that Perry has failed to make much of an impact with the public. As a consequence he has had a poor showing in the polls.

A recent Texas poll of prospective Republican presidential nominees shows Donald Trump now leading the field with 24%. Cruz is in second place at 16%, Ben Carson third with 12%, and Jeb Bush fourth at 9%. Former governor Rick Perry received only 4% support. Just two months ago, a poll by the Texas Tribune showed Perry at 12%, a very significant drop since Texas is his home state and he is the former Governor.

Currently Perry is at 1.3 percent in RCP’s poll average in Iowa. He hasn’t been above four percent in a poll there all year.

trump-cover-Time magazineContrast that with Donald Trump’s impact on the campaign and his showing in the polls which continues to increase across the country.

Sam Clovis has obviously thought about this, so it has been a bit of a no-brainer decision for him to move. He has described Trump as “a force to be reckoned with” and recognizes that he is a major threat to all the others in the presidential race.

On Trump’s popularity in Iowa Clovis commented that, “You cannot swing a dead cat in Iowa and not hit a Trump person. It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen.” And it’s not only in Iowa, Donald Trump has captured the imagination of ordinary Americans all over the country.


Donald Trump in Iowa

The Clovis defection is a big coup for the Trump campaign. I am sure his team are working hard to repeat the process where they can find useful people.

For example, the Wall Street Journal published a story recently concerning Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge-fund manager who thus far has been backing Scott Walker. There was no commitment one way or the other, but the WSJ wouldn’t have published the story unless they were sure the contact had been made. It illustrates that a lot of work is going on in the background on Trump’s behalf.

Headhunting among other campaigners’ teams is a good tactic from Trump. It is a kind of double-whammy. He gets experienced people to work for him and at the same gets a lot of invaluable media attention that would otherwise have to be paid for.

A quadruple whammy, actually, when you consider that it also has the additional and extremely significant positives of making the Trump campaign seem more professional and credible, whilst doing the exact opposite to his rivals.

I expect we will see more defections as the weeks go on and it becomes clearer to one and all that Donald Trump is the man in this election campaign.




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